Research
Work in progress
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- Domestic and international financial integration in Switzerland, 1846-1893, with Daniel Kaufmann, May 2022.
- The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913, with Stefan Gerlach, CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 13013. (See also VoxEU blog entry based on this paper.)
Under Review
- Commodity prices and global inflation, 1851-1913, with Stefan Gerlach, IRENE Working Paper 21-07.
- What Drives Long-Term Interest Rates? Evidence from the Entire Swiss Franc History 1852-2020, with Niko Hauzenberger, Daniel Kaufmann and Cédric Tille, IRENE Working Paper 22-03.
Revise and Resubmit
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Stock return predictability before the First World War, IRENE Working Paper 22-02.
- International co-movements of inflation, 1851-1913, with Stefan Gerlach, IRENE Working Paper 21-02 and CEPR Discussion Paper No. 15914.
Peer-reviewed publications
- Measuring stock market integration during the Gold Standard, Cliometrica, forthcoming. The working paper version is available here.
- 160 Years of aggregate supply and demand in Switzerland, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2022, 158:17.
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Monetary Regimes, the Term Structure and Business Cycles in Ireland, 1972-2018, The Manchester School, 2020, 88(5), 731-748. The working paper version is available here.
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What drives the FOMC’s dot plots?, with Stefan Gerlach, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2020, 140.
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The term structure, leading indicators and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974-2017, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2020, 156:2.
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Plotting interest rates: The FOMC’s projections and the economy, with Stefan Gerlach, Journal of Macroeconomics, 2019, 60, 198-211.
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UK shocks and Irish business cycles, 1922-1979, Economic History Review, 2019, 72(2), 618-640.
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A quarterly Phillips Curve for Switzerland using interpolated data, 1963-2016, Economic Modelling, 2018, 70, 78-86.
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The co-movement of the Irish, UK and US stock markets, 1869-1925, Essays in Economic and Business History, 2018, 36(1), 23-46.
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70 years of personal disposable income and consumption in Ireland, Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, 2016-17, 42, 47-70.
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Co-movements in stock market returns, Ireland and London, 1869-1929, Financial History Review, 2017, 24(2), 167-184.
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Unemployment and Inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012, with Stefan Gerlach and Reamonn Lydon, Cliometrica, 2016, 10(3), 345-364. (See also VoxEU blog entry based on this paper.)
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Money, interest rates and prices in Ireland, 1933-2012, with Stefan Gerlach, Irish Economic and Social History, 2015, 42, 1-32.
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A survival analysis of corporate liquidations in Ireland, with Robert Kelly and Eoin O’Brien, Small Business Economics, 2015, 44, 671-683.
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Money demand in Ireland, 1933-2012, with Stefan Gerlach, Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, 2013-14, 42, 1-17.
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Exploring the steady-state relationship between credit and GDP for a small open economy – the case of Ireland, with Kieran McQuinn and Robert Kelly, The Economic and Social Review, Policy Papers, 2011, 42, 455-477.
Other papers
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Could a large scale asset purchase programme have mitigated the Great Depression?, with Garo Garabedian, Central Bank of Ireland, Research Technical Paper, Vol. 2018, No. 7.
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Joining the dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates, with Stefan Gerlach, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 11618 and Central Bank of Ireland Research Technical Paper 08/RT/16, submitted. (See also VoxEU blog entry based on this paper.)
The views expressed on this site are mine, and do not represent those of the Central Bank of Ireland or the Eurosystem.