Research
Work in progress
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- Have We Under-Estimated Inflation Persistence before WW1? US and International Evidence, with Stefan Gerlach, CEPR Discussion Paper DP20024. (See also, VoxEU column based on this paper.)
- The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913, with Stefan Gerlach, CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 13013. (See also VoxEU column based on this paper.)
Under Review
- Missing Persistence: Measurement Errors and US Inflation before WW1, with Stefan Gerlach, CEPR Discussion Paper DP20063. (See also, VoxEU column based on this paper.)
- What Drives Long-Term Interest Rates? Evidence from the Entire Swiss Franc History 1852-2020, with Niko Hauzenberger, Daniel Kaufmann and Cédric Tille, IRENE Working Paper 22-03.
Revise and Resubmit
- Private money and money market integration: the role of payments infrastructure in 19th century Switzerland, with Daniel Kaufmann, IRENE Working Paper 24-05.
Peer-reviewed publications
- Commodity prices and international inflation, 1851-1913, with Stefan Gerlach, Journal of International Money and Finance, 144. The working paper is available here. (See also VoxEU column based on this paper.)
- International co-movements of inflation, 1851-1913, with Stefan Gerlach, Oxford Economic Papers, 76(4), 997-1013. The working paper is available here and here.
- Measuring stock market integration during the Gold Standard, Cliometrica, 18, 191-220.
- 160 Years of aggregate supply and demand in Switzerland, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2022, 158:17.
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Monetary Regimes, the Term Structure and Business Cycles in Ireland, 1972-2018, The Manchester School, 2020, 88(5), 731-748. The working paper version is available here.
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What drives the FOMC’s dot plots?, with Stefan Gerlach, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2020, 140.
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The term structure, leading indicators and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974-2017, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2020, 156:2.
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Plotting interest rates: The FOMC’s projections and the economy, with Stefan Gerlach, Journal of Macroeconomics, 2019, 60, 198-211.
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UK shocks and Irish business cycles, 1922-1979, Economic History Review, 2019, 72(2), 618-640.
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A quarterly Phillips Curve for Switzerland using interpolated data, 1963-2016, Economic Modelling, 2018, 70, 78-86.
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The co-movement of the Irish, UK and US stock markets, 1869-1925, Essays in Economic and Business History, 2018, 36(1), 23-46.
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70 years of personal disposable income and consumption in Ireland, Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, 2016-17, 42, 47-70.
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Co-movements in stock market returns, Ireland and London, 1869-1929, Financial History Review, 2017, 24(2), 167-184.
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Unemployment and Inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012, with Stefan Gerlach and Reamonn Lydon, Cliometrica, 2016, 10(3), 345-364. (See also VoxEU blog entry based on this paper.)
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Money, interest rates and prices in Ireland, 1933-2012, with Stefan Gerlach, Irish Economic and Social History, 2015, 42, 1-32.
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A survival analysis of corporate liquidations in Ireland, with Robert Kelly and Eoin O’Brien, Small Business Economics, 2015, 44, 671-683.
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Money demand in Ireland, 1933-2012, with Stefan Gerlach, Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, 2013-14, 42, 1-17.
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Exploring the steady-state relationship between credit and GDP for a small open economy – the case of Ireland, with Kieran McQuinn and Robert Kelly, The Economic and Social Review, Policy Papers, 2011, 42, 455-477.
Book Chapter
- Interest rates and the yield curve, chapter for Jobst, Clemens and Ugolini, Stefano, eds., Handbook on the History of Central Banking, Routledge, forthcoming.
Other papers
- Stock Return Predictability before the First World War, IRENE Working Paper 22-02.
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Could a large scale asset purchase programme have mitigated the Great Depression?, with Garo Garabedian, Central Bank of Ireland, Research Technical Paper, Vol. 2018, No. 7.
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Joining the dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates, with Stefan Gerlach, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 11618 and Central Bank of Ireland Research Technical Paper 08/RT/16, submitted. (See also VoxEU column based on this paper.)
The views expressed on this site are mine, and do not represent those of the Central Bank of Ireland or the Eurosystem.